Economics & Country Risk

With comprehensive and consistent data, economic and risk forecasting models, granular country and sovereign risk ratings, comparative industry forecasts, and analyzes on commodity prices, our Economics & Country Risk coverage identifies the market opportunities, risks, and problems to solve across the globe.

Global

he past, present, and future are seemingly converging as unprecedented circumstances continue roiling markets again, and again, and again. The so-called new normal that market participants have been hopeful will emerge in a post-pandemic world appears to be shaping into one of near constant volatility. But this world redefined may, at the same time, also be more resilient to such shocks.

EMEA

European countries’ recent rise in COVID-19 cases could somewhat slow the recovery in consumption this year, but still allow the eurozone economy to surpass pre-pandemic levels of activity. Emerging market economies across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, achieved a meaningful recovery from the pandemic-related downturn in 2021, but the potential for higher inflation and higher interest rates in those economies this year means the recovery is not yet complete.

Americas

The U.S. economy’s recovery is set to continue in 2022, albeit at a lower pace than in the previous year. Canada’s economy is set to experience strong expansion against the backdrop of continued coronavirus and inflation risks. In LatAm, the recovery is expected to continue unevenly across countries and sectors.

APAC

Although Asia-Pacific economies have largely escaped the high inflation pressures seen in other parts of the world, the region’s macroeconomic recovery continues to underperform relative to the U.S. and Europe as lockdowns crimp domestic demand and generate an overreliance on exports for growth. Market participants are watching for conditions needed to add momentum to APAC’s activity.

China in Focus

Focusing less on growth and more on new priorities that align with many of the Western nations it aims to compete with, China is transitioning to another stage of development—as it seeks to engage with net-zero transitions and even as it continues to engage in global trade disputes.

Emerging Markets

Emerging market economies are set to experience changing credit circumstances as geopolitical risks flare, inflation increases, interest rates rise, and financing conditions tighten.

Credit Markets

Over the past decade, global debt leverage has been trending upward—and most recently exacerbated by the COVID-19 crisis. After an unprecedented era of easy credit, what will be the impact when the cycle turns?

Banking

Even as signs of normalization from the coronavirus-caused economic downturn sprout across countries, the pandemic is pressuring global banking sectors as they balance declining asset quality and creditworthiness with increasing demand for lending.

Market Dynamics

The higher the volatility, the riskier the security. Current conditions are sending notable fluctuations across capital markets and commodities prices. Against this backdrop, understanding market dynamics has never been so crucial.

Insurance

The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically reshaped global insurance markets. Its impacts are largely felt through asset risks, notably capital markets volatility, and weaker premium growth prospects.

Financial Services

Insights from our monthly Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) survey data enable financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed and uncover opportunities.

Global Trade Activity

The global economy has never been so connected—nor so prone to disruption. Geopolitics, international events, extreme weather, and supply chain pressures can cause ripple effects across countries and industries.

Supply Chains

While much of the world is rebounding from the COVID-19 crisis’ economic downturn, global supply chains are facing continuing pressures from changes in consumption patterns, surging demand for goods, shortages of workers, and pre-existing political pressures.

Maritime & Shipping

The inhibiting effects of region’s varying coronavirus conditions have been transmitted globally through trade relations—and are evident in maritime and shipping prices and processes.

Geopolitics

Geopolitical tensions are surging and core inflation is expected to move higher. The U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks around the world are preparing to tighten monetary policy, banks’ liquidity may be reduced and financing conditions could worsen.

Agribusiness

Agriculture feeds the global community. Discover what’s driving the production, trade, prices, and performance of corn, sugar, soybeans, pork, vegetable oils, and other food commodities.

Chemicals

The chemicals market, which involves the oil, midstream, downstream, and renewable fuel sectors, is set to experience rapid change due to changing economic conditions spurred by the pandemic and a new world aspiring to carbon neutrality.

Energy Transition

The heightened urgency of the climate crisis has accelerated calls to action for the global energy industry to shift from fossil-based systems of energy production and consumption—including oil, natural gas, and coal—to renewable energy sources.

Metals & Mining

Metals markets have watched prices move sharply higher as geopolitical tensions weigh on the availability of palladium, aluminum, nickel, and other key commodities.

Oil & Gas

The oil and gas industries are having to learn to adapt in a world that's pushing for cleaner energy, facing geopolitical tensions and supply chain pressures, and experiencing high prices.

Climate Risk & Resilience

Climate-exacerbated disasters cost companies and investors billions. Natural capital costs were 77% higher than net income for major global companies in 2019, and 66% of such companies will have at least one asset under high physical risk in 2050.

Social Equity

The ESG conversation is evolving rapidly as investors, corporates, and the public give more priority to the ‘S’ in ESG—including social issues like stakeholder capitalism, gender and racial diversity, income inequality, worker safety, and companies' broader role in society.

Sustainable Finance

S&P Global Ratings anticipates global sustainable debt issuance will surpass $1 trillion in 2021. This comes after green bonds grew from virtually nothing in 2012 to $282.05 billion in 2020 and social bond issuance surged during the COVID-19 crisis.

The Path to Net-Zero

Net-zero and carbon neutral commitments are on the rise as companies, financial institutions, and countries pledge to cut emissions as much as possible and offset the rest. Despite an increase of engagement and collaboration on the international stage, progress to date has been worryingly slow.

ESG Regulation & Standards

Investors are demanding transparency. Policymakers and regulators are imposing disclosure requirements. Companies are backing the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures. But a patchwork of reporting frameworks keeps ESG data uneven.

Clean Transportation

The creation of a net-zero global economy requires clean transportation—spanning low- to zero-emission transportation fleets and involving manufacturing transformations, battery technologies, and new charging infrastructure.

Hydrogen

Weighing various energy market scenarios to meet the conditions of the Paris Agreement, countries across North America, Europe, and the Middle East are going big for hydrogen as a viable clean fuel to drive the transition away from fossil fuels.

Renewable Energy

As countries diversify their energy mixes, many are investing heavily into wind, solar, nuclear, hydrogen, lithium-ion batteries, and other sources of renewable energy to modernize their energy grids, power their transportation, and fuel their economies.

Technology & Media

Technological disruption is the driving change agent for businesses, their competitive and industrial dynamics, and capital markets that fund growth. Media—including broadcast, cable, cinema, OTT, and telecom—is creating the culture and information channels of the future.

Cyber Risk

In an increasingly digital world, the growing frequency of cyber attacks is a concern for companies worldwide.

Automotive

Start your engines and drive your decision-making to your destination with observations and insights from our global automotive industry experts on the market’s technology, production, product strategies, sales, and marketing.

Life Sciences

Life science industry growth is supported by increased demand from an aging population and scientific advancements that support a steady stream of new products. However, this is partially offset by a moderate erosion in pricing power for drug makers.